About the only thing you can be certain of about project completion date calculated by traditional critical path method (CPM) scheduling tools is that it will be wrong.
Even assuming the schedule complies with best practices, contains the entire project scope, and has reasonable estimates for activity (task) durations, there is a strong likelihood the project will not be delivered on time or within budget.
Why is that? Because every project is subject to uncertainty. Unfortunately, even if the original estimates are good and activity actual durations are on average close to the original estimates, a phenomenon called merge bias means that the more predecessors any given activity has, the less probable it is to start on time. This is the key reason for performing a schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation.
Barbecana’s Full Monte Schedule Risk Analysis software is a very fast, easy to use, Monte Carlo solution that runs against data in your existing scheduling tool so there is no need to export the data before the analysis can be performed.
Full Monte calculates the range of probable dates for every single activity/milestone in the project in a single analysis. It will also identify all potential critical paths through the project. Sensitivity Analysis helps identify key areas to reduce uncertainty in deliverable outcomes.